Rachel Reeves’ Spring Statement didn’t arrive with the fanfare of anticipation that accompanied the Autumn Budget. This low-key announcement was made today (3 March 2026).

Overshadowed by events in the Middle East and not reflecting their imminent impact on inflation and energy costs, here are the key announcements:

How is the economy doing?

• Anticipated economic growth of 1.1% is forecast for this year, increasing to 1.6% in both 2027 and 2028 and 1.5% in both 2029 and 2030.
• Inflation is set to reach its forecast level of 2% by the end of this year.
• Unemployment is expected to rise to 5.3% this year. This is higher than the Autumn Budget forecast of 4.9%. It’s expected to fall gradually, decreasing to 4.1% by 2030.
• In 2025-26, Real Household Disposable Income per person is expected to grow by 0.1% and then average 0.5% growth a year until 2029.

What’s happening next?

• The anticipated relief for business rates and student loans did not materialise.
• No new tax rises were announced. The government’s total tax take is forecast to hit a “historic high” by 2030-31, rising to almost 43% of GDP. That’s an increase from around 39% of GDP in 2024-25.
• The two-child benefit cap will be removed from April 2026, and welfare benefits will rise in line with inflation.
• The introduction of increases to National Insurance and the National Living Wage, together with the new Employment Rights Act, has dampened recruitment and investment.
• The roll-out of Making Tax Digital for Income Tax continues as planned, starting in April 2026 for sole traders and landlords with qualifying income of over £50,000. (Read more)

Effectively, this Spring Statement is seen as a holding exercise with more significant changes needed in the next Autumn Budget. Full details of the Spring Forecast 2026 are available online.

‘The Chancellor kept her promise of keeping to one major fiscal event each year to offer stability and certainty on upcoming tax and spending changes,’ says Suzanne Spicer of Spicer & Co Chartered Accountants in Dunstable. ‘There’s little significant change affecting people and businesses on a day-to-day basis. We anticipate bigger announcements in the autumn.’

The Autumn Budget is planned for 26 November 2026.